<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="UTF-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
  <meta name="aspect-ratio" content="4:3">
  <style>
    * {
      box-sizing: border-box;
      margin: 0;
      padding: 0;
    }
    body {
      font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, sans-serif;
      background: transparent;
      color: #0f172a;
      width: 100%;
      min-height: 100%;
      display: flex;
      justify-content: center;
      align-items: center;
      padding: 12px;
    }
    .comparison-grid {
      display: grid;
      grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr;
      gap: 20px;
      width: 100%;
      max-width: 640px;
    }
    @media (max-width: 480px) {
      .comparison-grid {
        grid-template-columns: 1fr;
        gap: 20px;
      }
    }
    .col {
      display: flex;
      flex-direction: column;
      align-items: center;
      text-align: center;
      background: transparent;
      padding: 4px;
    }
    .badge {
      display: inline-flex;
      align-items: center;
      gap: 6px;
      font-size: 13px;
      font-weight: 700;
      letter-spacing: 0.02em;
      padding: 5px 12px;
      border-radius: 9999px;
      margin-bottom: 10px;
    }
    .badge-certain {
      background: #ecfdf5;
      color: #047857;
      border: 1px solid #a7f3d0;
    }
    .badge-uncertain {
      background: #fffbeb;
      color: #b45309;
      border: 1px solid #fde68a;
    }
    .badge-icon {
      display: inline-flex;
      align-items: center;
      justify-content: center;
      width: 16px;
      height: 16px;
      font-weight: 800;
      font-size: 12px;
    }
    .illustration-box {
      width: 100%;
      height: 125px;
      display: flex;
      align-items: center;
      justify-content: center;
      border-radius: 14px;
      margin-bottom: 12px;
      padding: 4px;
    }
    .illustration-box.certain-bg {
      background: #ecfdf5;
      border: 1px solid #d1fae5;
    }
    .illustration-box.uncertain-bg {
      background: #fffbeb;
      border: 1px solid #fef3c7;
    }
    svg {
      width: 100%;
      height: 100%;
      max-height: 116px;
      display: block;
    }
    .title {
      font-size: 16px;
      font-weight: 700;
      color: #0f172a;
      margin-bottom: 6px;
      line-height: 1.3;
    }
    .concept-tag {
      font-size: 12px;
      font-weight: 600;
      line-height: 1.4;
      padding: 5px 10px;
      border-radius: 8px;
      margin-bottom: 12px;
    }
    .tag-certain {
      background: #ecfdf5;
      color: #065f46;
      border: 1px solid #a7f3d0;
    }
    .tag-uncertain {
      background: #fffbeb;
      color: #92400e;
      border: 1px solid #fde68a;
    }
    .meter-container {
      width: 100%;
      margin-top: auto;
    }
    .meter-track {
      width: 100%;
      height: 10px;
      background: #e2e8f0;
      border-radius: 9999px;
      overflow: hidden;
      display: flex;
    }
    .meter-fill-100 {
      width: 100%;
      height: 100%;
      background: #059669;
      border-radius: 9999px;
    }
    .meter-fill-50 {
      width: 50%;
      height: 100%;
      background: #d97706;
      border-radius: 9999px;
    }

    /* Smooth SVG Animations without flicker */
    .sun-rays {
      transform-origin: 45px 35px;
      animation: smoothRotate 24s linear infinite;
    }
    @keyframes smoothRotate {
      from { transform: rotate(0deg); }
      to { transform: rotate(360deg); }
    }
    .drop {
      animation: smoothDrip 2.4s ease-in-out infinite;
    }
    @keyframes smoothDrip {
      0% { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(0); }
      30% { opacity: 0.95; }
      75% { opacity: 0.95; transform: translateY(12px); }
      100% { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(15px); }
    }
    .ripple {
      animation: smoothRipple 2.8s ease-in-out infinite;
      transform-origin: 140px 92px;
    }
    @keyframes smoothRipple {
      0%, 100% { opacity: 0.45; transform: scale(0.96); }
      50% { opacity: 0.85; transform: scale(1.04); }
    }
    .pulse-thought {
      animation: smoothFloat 3s ease-in-out infinite alternate;
    }
    @keyframes smoothFloat {
      0% { transform: translateY(0); }
      100% { transform: translateY(-4px); }
    }
  </style>
</head>
<body>

  <div class="comparison-grid">
    
    <div class="col">
      <div class="badge badge-certain">
        <span>CERTAIN (100%)</span>
        <span class="badge-icon">
          <svg viewBox="0 0 16 16" fill="currentColor" width="14" height="14">
            <path fill-rule="evenodd" d="M13.78 4.22a.75.75 0 010 1.06l-7.25 7.25a.75.75 0 01-1.06 0L2.22 9.28a.75.75 0 011.06-1.06L6 10.94l6.72-6.72a.75.75 0 011.06 0z"/>
          </svg>
        </span>
      </div>
      
      <div class="illustration-box certain-bg">
        <svg viewBox="0 0 200 110" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
          
          <g class="sun-rays">
            <line x1="45" y1="17" x2="45" y2="10" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="45" y1="53" x2="45" y2="60" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="27" y1="35" x2="20" y2="35" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="63" y1="35" x2="70" y2="35" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="32" y1="22" x2="27" y2="17" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="58" y1="48" x2="63" y2="53" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="32" y1="48" x2="27" y2="53" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
            <line x1="58" y1="22" x2="63" y2="17" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round"/>
          </g>
          
          <circle cx="45" cy="35" r="13" fill="#fbbf24" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2"/>
          <circle cx="41" cy="33" r="1.5" fill="#78350f"/>
          <circle cx="49" cy="33" r="1.5" fill="#78350f"/>
          <path d="M41.5 38 Q45 42 48.5 38" stroke="#78350f" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" fill="none"/>

          
          <path d="M66 45 Q90 48 115 58" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity="0.85" fill="none"/>
          <path d="M60 55 Q85 62 105 72" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="3 3" opacity="0.85" fill="none"/>

          
          <ellipse cx="140" cy="92" rx="44" ry="10" fill="#93c5fd" opacity="0.75"/>
          <g class="ripple">
            <ellipse cx="140" cy="92" rx="30" ry="6" fill="#60a5fa" opacity="0.6"/>
          </g>

          
          <rect x="120" y="58" width="36" height="30" rx="8" fill="#bae6fd" stroke="#38bdf8" stroke-width="2"/>
          
          <path d="M126 64 L148 64" stroke="#ffffff" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round"/>
          <path d="M126 69 L135 69" stroke="#ffffff" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round"/>
          
          
          <g class="drop">
            <circle cx="158" cy="73" r="2.5" fill="#0284c7"/>
          </g>
        </svg>
      </div>

      <div class="title">Ice melts in the heat</div>
      <div class="concept-tag tag-certain">Happens every single time — zero doubt.</div>

      <div class="meter-container">
        <div class="meter-track">
          <div class="meter-fill-100"></div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </div>

    
    <div class="col">
      <div class="badge badge-uncertain">
        <span>NOT CERTAIN</span>
        <span class="badge-icon">?</span>
      </div>

      <div class="illustration-box uncertain-bg">
        <svg viewBox="0 0 200 110" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
          
          <rect x="22" y="48" width="72" height="46" rx="7" fill="#fed7aa" stroke="#f97316" stroke-width="2"/>
          <path d="M22 58 L94 58" stroke="#ea580c" stroke-width="1.5"/>
          <path d="M44 48 C44 39 72 39 72 48" stroke="#ea580c" stroke-width="2.5" fill="none"/>
          
          
          <circle cx="46" cy="74" r="10" fill="#ef4444"/>
          <path d="M46 64 Q48 61 52 61" stroke="#15803d" stroke-width="2" fill="none"/>
          <circle cx="69" cy="75" r="8" fill="#fde68a" stroke="#d97706" stroke-width="1"/>

          
          <circle cx="104" cy="62" r="3" fill="#cbd5e1"/>
          <circle cx="114" cy="53" r="4.5" fill="#cbd5e1"/>

          
          <g class="pulse-thought">
            <rect x="124" y="20" width="62" height="62" rx="31" fill="#ffffff" stroke="#f59e0b" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="4 3"/>
            
            
            <circle cx="155" cy="51" r="17" fill="#d97706"/>
            
            <circle cx="149" cy="46" r="2.2" fill="#78350f"/>
            <circle cx="161" cy="45" r="2" fill="#78350f"/>
            <circle cx="155" cy="54" r="2.2" fill="#78350f"/>
            <circle cx="147" cy="57" r="1.8" fill="#78350f"/>
            <circle cx="162" cy="58" r="1.8" fill="#78350f"/>

            
            <circle cx="172" cy="27" r="9" fill="#f59e0b"/>
            <text x="172" y="31.5" font-family="system-ui, sans-serif" font-size="12" font-weight="bold" fill="#ffffff" text-anchor="middle">?</text>
          </g>
        </svg>
      </div>

      <div class="title">Eating a cookie today</div>
      <div class="concept-tag tag-uncertain">Possible, but plans can change!</div>

      <div class="meter-container">
        <div class="meter-track">
          <div class="meter-fill-50"></div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </div>
  </div>

</body>
</html>

Things That Will Definitely Happen: Understanding Certainty

Things That Cannot Happen: Understanding Impossible Events

Understanding Possible and Maybe Events

Impossible, Possible, and Certain Events

Sorting Everyday Events: Certain, Possible, or Impossible

Describing Events as More Likely or Less Likely

Predicting Outcomes with Spinners and Color Tiles

Testing Predictions with Simple Experiments

math

Exploring Likelihood and Foundations of Probability

认识确定现象与不确定现象（随机现象）

用“一定”、“不可能”、“可能”描述事件

摸球实验：体验随机现象的不确定性

摸球实验：体验数量多少与可能性大小的关系

转盘游戏中可能性大小的直观判断

掷骰子实验与各点数出现可能性

抛硬币实验与大数定律初步感知

认识随机现象与体验可能性

列出单次随机事件的所有可能结果

列出两步随机事件的所有可能结果：树状图法

列出两步随机事件的所有可能结果：表格法

定性描述可能性大小的多级词汇

用分数表示简单事件发生的可能性大小

用百分数描述天气预报降水概率

判断游戏规则的公平性

设计公平的游戏规则与转盘方案

按指定可能性要求设计摸球方案与转盘分区

可能结果列举与概率初步计算

随机事件中的“赌徒谬误”辨析

商场抽奖与彩票中的可能性分析

扑克牌中的可能性：花色、点数与大小王

生活中的随机抽样与产品质量抽检

利用统计频数数据推断未知事件的可能性

概率实验模拟活动：计算机随机数与实体仿真

可能性与随机现象实践探究小课题

可能性与随机现象单元综合测评

可能性应用、统计推断与探究实践

Understanding Conditional Probability Language

Using 'Given That' in Probability Problems

Calculating Conditional Probabilities from Tables

Using Tree Diagrams for Conditional Probability

Two-Way Tables and Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability in Real-World Contexts

Designing Simulations for Conditional Probability

Using Digital Tools to Model Conditional Probability

Interpreting Simulation Results

Comparing Theoretical and Experimental Conditional Probabilities

Conditional Probability

O que é o acaso? eventos certos e incertos

Acontecerá com certeza

Talvez aconteça

É impossível acontecer

Classificando eventos do cotidiano

Jogos com moedas e dados: explorando o acaso

Primeiras noções de acaso

Identificar el dato más frecuente: la moda en gráficos

Identificar tendencias de aumento y disminución en datos

Comparar dos conjuntos de datos en un mismo contexto

Sucesos seguros, posibles e imposibles en la vida diaria

Juegos de azar con dados, monedas y ruletas

Comparar posibilidades: más probable y menos probable

Predicciones en bolsas con fichas de colores

Igual de probable: situaciones equitativas de azar

Análisis de datos, tendencias y probabilidad inicial

O que é um evento aleatório?

Eventos certos e impossíveis

Eventos prováveis e improváveis

Muito provável vs pouco provável

Comparando probabilidades de eventos

Criando e classificando nossos eventos

Eventos aleatórios e probabilidades

Identificando todos os resultados possíveis

Mais provável e menos provável

Comparando chances de ocorrência

Experimentos aleatórios com moedas

Experimentos aleatórios com dados

Eventos familiares: o que pode acontecer?

Eventos aleatórios e chances de ocorrência

Eventos aleatórios no cotidiano: o que pode acontecer?

Identificando eventos mais prováveis

Comparando chances de eventos cotidianos

Características de resultados mais prováveis

Introdução à probabilidade no cotidiano

O que é um experimento aleatório?

Listando todos os resultados possíveis

Resultados igualmente prováveis ou não?

Lançamento de dados: analisando resultados

Girando uma roleta: resultados possíveis

Sacando bolas de uma urna

Probabilidade em eventos equiprováveis

Calculando probabilidade: casos favoráveis e possíveis

Comparando probabilidades de diferentes eventos

Problemas de probabilidade no cotidiano

Eventos aleatórios e probabilidade

OGM.2.DAT.3

OGM.2.DAT.3

Aligned learning resources

Related diagrams